East Slopes Central

Another day of the ongoing freeze-thaw cycles means avalanches are still unlikely. But consider these conditions similar to spring and watch for isolated rocks or cornices that may shed with sun and warm temperatures in the afternoon. 

An ever-so-subtle pattern shift is knocking on our door, but it won't do much to change snow or avalanche conditions. You may see more high clouds during the day on Tuesday, along with an increase in upper-level westerly winds. Mid- and lower-elevation areas will likely remain below the cloud deck and experience cold temperatures with easterly winds. Isolated hazards remain possible: a cornice could give way, snow may shed from steep rocky features, or you may be able to push a small wet loose slide during the warmest part of the afternoon. These scenarios are unlikely, but they’re not impossible. So just avoid lingering beneath any of these overhead hazards for extended periods of time. 

Each night, the snow surface continues to refreeze, even in places where air temperatures hover above freezing. Expect firm, icy conditions first thing in the morning, where a slip could quickly turn into a long, uncontrolled slide. While sun-exposed terrain should eventually soften, shaded aspects often remain hard all day.

Don’t be misled by cold temperatures at trailheads. Many mid and upper-elevation sites haven’t dropped below freezing in days. Last weekend’s rain, combined with sustained warmth and sunshine, has significantly thinned the snowpack. Travel is especially challenging at lower elevations and on south-facing slopes, where bare ground, open creeks, holes, and downed timber are widespread. An NWAC forecaster at Blewett Pass on Monday reported significant bare ground, with most areas lacking sufficient snow for recreation opportunities. The snowpack was composed of surface-melt freeze crusts, with faceted snow in between and near the ground.  Surface hoar is widespread throughout the zone in areas below the cold inversion line.