Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Multiple feet of new snow and strong winds will create very dangerous avalanche conditions as the day progresses. Large avalanches could occur in both windy and sheltered terrain. Very large avalanches may release from above. Avoid major run-out zones this weekend, including Avalanche Gulch. Know where you are in the terrain to increase your safety margin.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3.5

    Multiple feet of new snow will form storm slabs at all elevation bands. Slabs will grow in size and sensitivity today into tonight as the snow accumulates. Expect to find the largest slabs on wind-drifted slopes below ridgelines and in gully features. Avalanches may fail on density changes within the storm snow or on the old/new snow interface. 

    • Large and very large natural avalanches are likely. Avoid major run-out zones this weekend, including Avalanche Gulch. Know where you are in the terrain. 
    • Large human-triggered avalanches are very likely, especially this afternoon into this evening.

    Travel on, near, or below steep slopes is not recommended later this afternoon into tonight. If you choose to enter avalanche terrain during the daylight hours, carefully evaluate slab size and sensitivity. Use small, inconsequential test slopes before stepping out into steeper terrain. Avoid wind-drifted areas. Look for shooting cracks and listen for collapses to alert you to unstable snow.

    (1/20/2024)

    An example of a storm slab avalanche that may be encountered today, as snow accumulates below treeline

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

Avalanche Discussion

There is inherent uncertainty in the conditions at the alpine elevations of Mount Shasta during a large storm. However, this weekend's storm is similar to last week's Christmas storm that produced an impressive avalanche cycle on the south and west sides of Mount Shasta, including a very large avalanche in Avalanche Gulch and a historic avalanche in Diller Canyon. Both slides ran thousands of vertical feet. Historical storms in line with this weekend's storm have produced massive avalanches that reached into areas below treeline generally considered "safe." Hence, the recommendation is to avoid large run-out zones this weekend, including Avalanche Gulch. There are opportunities for recreation in non-avalanche terrain on slopes below 30 degrees and not underneath or adjacent to steeper terrain.

Low visibility and whiteout conditions will challenge route-finding today. It will not be hard to become disoriented and find yourself on or underneath dangerous slopes, especially near and above treeline. Careful navigation and route finding is essential. 

Many creeks, streams, and rivers remain open and are running well. Water levels will rise over the weekend. Use caution if crossing.

Bunny Flat is a busy, multi-use trailhead. Please be respectful of ALL users. Motorized users, RVs, trucks with trailers/toy haulers: Please park below and downhill of the bathrooms and “Motorized Use”  loading ramp signs. Loading and unloading at the ramp is permitted, but all vehicles and trailers must be moved and parked afterward. Motorized use is restricted to designated areas. Posted signage with QR codes provides maps of approved motorized zones. The Wilderness boundary is clearly signed. Citations are active.

Events: 

Saturday, January 3rd at 7pm - Know Before You Go at Deadwood Supply Co in Mount Shasta

Sunday, January 4th at 9am - Companion Rescue Beacon Clinic at Bunny Flat

We hope to see you there!

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