Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Considerable at all elevations.  Recent new snowfall is stressing a weak snowpack.  Human triggered avalanches are likely 1-3 feet in depth.  Watch for signs of instability such as shooting cracks or collapsing, if these are present it is reccomended to avoid terrain steeper than 30°.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    We have a dangerous snowpack setup.  Recent snowfall is stressing a weak snowpack, especially below 3500', where a faceted rain crust exists.  We are in a precarious position, as we have not yet received enough new snow to trigger natural avalanches; however, human-triggered avalanches are likely 1-3 feet deep.  Yesterday, field observations found shooting cracks, collapsing , sensitive stability tests, and one of our group triggered a D2 avalanche.  Their observation is linked here.

    We have two distinct persistent weak layers that are separated by elevation.  The first is the 12/1 rain crust that goes up to 3000'-3500'.  This is the most concerning layer currently and is primed for human triggered avalanches in specific terrain.  The second is weak snow (December facets) that exists beneath rock hard wind slabs above 3000'.   This layer is less likely to trigger currently, but would have higher consequences and should be on our radar as we receive more snow later in the week.

    The most likely area to trigger a persistent slab today will be slopes below 3500' that are open and free of vegetation and steeper than 30°.  The majority of areas where the 12/1 crust exists still have thick brush.  This brush acts as anchors and breaks up the slab making wide slab propagation more difficult to occur.  Watch for signs of instability, such as shooting cracks and collapsing and keep to mellow terrain when they exist.

     

    (1/3/2026)

    Facets on the underside of the 12/1 rain crust

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    We have received 12-18 inches of new snow in the last 48 hours.  This new snow has accumulated on low density snow that fell at very cold temperatures earlier this week.  The interface between these two layers is showing signs of instability.  Below this interface, an unstable snowpack exists in some locations (see problem 1).  Areas where the new snow has been redistributed by wind will be the most likely areas to trigger an avalanche and could step down to deeper layers in the snowpack producing an avalanche that is large enough to injure, bury, or kill a person.

    We dont have any field observations from the alpine yesterday.  It is unclear how well the new snow has bonded at upper elevations.  If the skies clear and you venture into upper elevation terrain try to keep terrain choices conservative and maintain good communication and protocols with your group.

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  1/10 Snowboard triggered D2 on Cracked Ice at 2900' NW aspect- SS-ARu-R2-D2-O.  Snowboarder caught and carried was not buried, no injuries.  

Forecast Discussion: 

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist.  Our snowpack is transitioning from a month-long drought to a period of consistent storms that will bring accumulating snowfall.  This new snow is putting stress on weak snow that was left behind by the December drought.  

There are multiple weak layers of concern currently.  Luckily, most of them are close enough to the surface that they are giving users feedback with signs of instability.  The sensitivity of hard slabs at upper elevations  is unknown, and this uncertainty and the consequences of triggering a deep slab should be treated with respect.

If travelling in avalanche terrain today keep terrain choices simple and avoid terrain traps.  Pay attention to how stiff the new snow is and be alert to any changes.  Any signs of instability that are encountered should be a direct sign to move to terrain that is less than 30°.

Additional Details:  Be aware that the new snow is masking what was bare ground last week in some areas.  Large expanses of bare ground exist near Thompson Pass in popular terrain such as Moonlight, Loveland, Oddessey, and Catcher's Mitt.  Use caution in all terrain above 3000' to avoid hitting rocks.

There is no field data from the Maritime zone due to low snow coverage and thick brush restricting access.  Check out the season summary tab for more information on the development of the snowpack.

 

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