Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Both the size and chance of triggering avalanches increase as you climb into windy terrain.  Above treeline, natural avalanches are possible. Avoid steep slopes with stiff, wind-drifted snow at the surface.  Where you find soft, fluffy snow, triggering a large avalanche is far less likely but not impossible.

Continued snowfall and wind will cause the danger to rise. Be careful if you're out playing late in the day. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    What and where is it?  In alpine terrain, slabs could release naturally, are larger, and are most widespread. Recent wind and snowfall formed slabs and drifts up to 3 feet thick in upper and some middle elevation locations, and they will continue to grow today. Some slabs overlie crusts and/or thin layers of weak, faceted snow; the wind slabs could be easy to trigger and break wider than expected on some slopes. 

    How can we recognize and manage this problem? Fortunately, the fresh wind slabs are fairly easy to spot and avoid. Watch for smooth pillows below ridgelines and cornices as well as on the sides of cross-loaded gullies. In the craggy Sawtooth Mtns, you may find slabs where "spindrifted" snow has accumulated below large cliff faces and couloirs. Dunes and ripples on the surface are clues the wind has been at work transporting snow. If you feel the snow surface getting stiffer, it's time to pay attention. Cracks shooting out from your skis or sled are an obvious sign that you've found a wind slab. Hard wind slabs sound hollow, like a drum, and behave unpredictably; they can break above you and wider than expected. 

    Additional Discussion - Loose Snow "sluffs": Over two feet of snow has fallen recently, and more is on the way. Natural and human-triggered "sluffs" will become more likely as the fresh snow piles up. Many of these slides will not be big enough to bury people, but they could knock you over and carry you where you don't want to go. Additionally, they could trigger larger slab avalanches lower on aprons and in cirques.

    (1/2/2026) A wind slab avalanche triggered while stomping from low angle terrain above. 9500' NE facing slope near Butterfield.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    While unlikely, we can't write off triggering large avalanches in middle and upper elevation terrain while the snow keeps piling up. Unfortunately, you probably won't receive any obvious signs of instability before triggering one of these lingering monsters. We are most concerned with a layer of weak facets found near the ground on middle and upper elevation slopes, especially those facing away from the sun.

    Triggering a slide on this layer is most likely in rocky, heavily wind-affected areas where the snowpack depth is variable, and in more sheltered terrain where the snowpack is around 3 feet deep (read the Forecast Discussion for details). Smaller wind slab avalanches or sluffs (Problem 1 above) could "step-down" as they travel down slope, triggering much larger Persistent Slab avalanches.

    (12/28/2025) Large natural avalanches. Paradise Peak and West Fork Big Creek. Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

This zone has received over 2 inches of water (about 2-3 feet of snow) since New Year's Day. Yesterday, local professionals intentionally triggered relatively small wind slab avalanches just to the north of this zone near Copper Mountain. Models predict another 0.6-1.5" of water (8-20" of snow) by tomorrow morning, and W-SW winds should build to moderate to strong speeds. Wind slabs will grow and become more widespread this afternoon and evening. 

Expect conditions to deteriorate today and tonight; the slopes you safely traveled on or under this morning could become sketchy, and natural avalanches will become likely. If you're out playing late in the day, plan a safe option to get back to the trailhead or hut in the event tonight's heavier snowfall and stronger wind arrive eariler than forecast.   

Where is the best chance of finding the thinner snowpacks near 3 feet deep where the Persistent Slab problem could still be alive?  Near the mouths of the drainages near Smiley Creek (Headwaters of the Salmon River, Frenchman Ck, Smiley Ck, Beaver Ck), and on the eastern front of the Sawtooth Mtns. Read Zach's Observation from New Year's Day for more information.  

Regions covered