Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will rise through the day and overnight as heavy snowfall forms storm instabilities.  Fresh slabs will become largest and most sensitive at higher elevations, where winds are drifting the new snow.  Choose more conservative terrain free of terrain traps as storm totals increase later today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Fresh slabs will become easy to trigger as new and windblown snow thickens throughout the day.   Slabs will be small this morning and could grow to dangerous sizes by sunset on leeward terrain features or long-running terrain.  Monitor new snow accumulations and look for signs of instability such as cracking or blowing snow before riding in steep terrain.  Shallow slabs can cause trouble if they push you into trees or gullies.     

    Look for cracking like this to identify changing avalanche conditions and developing storm slabs. 

Avalanche Discussion

NW Mountains:  It's a straightforward day of new snow management.   Following yesterday's warmup and overnight refreeze, most surfaces are crusty with some dry powder remaining on northerly slopes.  Avalanches breaking below this morning's storm interface are unlikely.  Expect poor bonding of the new snow to yesterday's crusts. The danger strictly depends on how much snow we get today.  The danger is Low early this morning, and will rise towards Considerable sometime later this afternoon or evening, depending on how much and how quickly the new snow piles up.  Slabs will be thicker and more sensitive at higher elevations where snow accumulations will be deeper and winds will be stiffening the new snow.   Use small test slopes to get a feel for the size and sensitivity of new snow instabilities.  If today's storm totals significantly exceed our snow forecast, expect the danger to rise to Considerable at mid and lower elevations as well.  

SE Mountains:  It's the same new snow considerations, but with additional concerns for avalanches to break on deeper weak layers.  Storm totals look to be less today in the Southeast Mountains, so we're not expecting new storm slabs to be as common or large by sunset.  During last weekend's storm, we saw several large to very large avalanches break on old weak layers.  We are most concerned about human triggering in terrain that holds unusually shallow snow depths or drifted slopes with variable snow depths.   The warm, sunny weather over the last two days formed thick crusts on the southern quadrant which has strengthened the upper snowpack and reduced the threat of triggering a deeper avalanche on those aspects.  The avalanche danger is Moderate this morning and expected to rise to Considerable sometime tonight as storm totals increase.  If storm totals significantly exceed our snow forecast, expect the danger to rise to Considerable before sunset.   

Events:  The Al Johnson race is Sunday, March 19. Information and registration are here.  Day of race registration and bib pick up 9-11 a.m. at the Adventure Center in Mountaineer Square. Proceeds go to the CBAC.

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