Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The snowpack is recovering after multiple February storms built thick slabs over well-developed weak layers, primarily on the northern half of the compass. Large and destructive avalanches occurred Tuesday during wind loading, with additional activity reported more recently just north of the forecast area near Aspen. Yesterday, skiers remotly triggered an avalanche without any obvious warning signs, highlighting the continued unpredictability of this persistent slab problem. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist due to potentially destructive avalanches that can be triggered with little warning, and conservative travel is recommended to manage these conditions.

Southerly-facing slopes may offer improved riding once surface crusts soften later today. However, if you begin sinking several inches into wet snow, small wet loose avalanches could become possible on steep slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Slabs over buried weak layers 1.5 to 3.5 feet thick vary from stubborn to reactive under the weight of humans. These slabs are stiff and often do not show obvious warning signs before avalanches are triggered. The north half of the compass has the most fragile weak layers buried in the middle and bottom of the snowpack and is most likely to produce remote-triggered, widely propagating, and destructive avalanches from steep or adjacent flat terrain (see several videos illustrating this).  Some higher-elevation southerly terrain also harbors problematic structures.  Manage today's persistent slab problem by choosing lower-angle and more conservative terrain without steeper overhead hazards on the aspects highlighted above.

     

    A pair of large persistent slabs below Scarp Ridge, which likely ran during increased winds on Tuesday.  

    Photo: Irwin Guides

Avalanche Discussion

Observers have noted rain crusts that extended well above 11,000ft. These crusts have made good riding more challenging to find on the northern half of the compass, and they are also making it harder for the weight of a human to affect buried, persistent weak layers. Managing trigger points and areas where slabs thin, will start to work its way into the travel advice. For now, we are still recommending conservative travel until we put a little time between the wind-loading that occurred through the mid-week and the precipitation that accumulated on Wednesday. The fact that large and destructive avalanches occurred several days ago, just from additional wind-loading, should not be taken lightly. Ideally, we'll look into the mountains today and not see any new avalanches that occurred on Wednesday or Thursday. 

On Wednesday, the mountains received warm and wet precipitation. SWE (snow water equivalent) totals for those 36 hours of precipitation averaged .4 SWE at remote weather stations across the forecast area. Hand measurements at Irwin, recorded .65 SWE on Wednesday afternoon. Unfortunately, most of that perception fell as rain at lower elevations, and some rain at high elevations created surface crusts that extend well over 11,000ft. We have not yet documented how high those crusts go.

The likelihood of the persistent slab avalanche problem was dropped back to possible for the northwest mountain forecast area and remains likely in the southeast mountain forecast area. While the avalanche problem is trending towards stubborn in the southeast mountain forecast area, the thinner slabs and overall shallower snowpack will keep sensitivity there trailing that of the deeper snowpack more common in the northwest mountain forecast area. 

Regions covered