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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 22nd, 2015–Nov 23rd, 2015

Alpine
Below Threshold.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Below Threshold.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Below Threshold.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Cariboos.

There are still a lot of gaps in our knowledge about the early season snowpack. If you get out to enjoy some of the great early season riding please submit any observations from your day to the MIN.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

An advancing cold front is going to bring between 10 and 20 cm of snow over the next couple of days with the greatest accumulations expected for the Blue River area. By Wednesday a high pressure system will settle over BC bringing several days of chilly but stable weather. Winds will be light from the south on Monday, becoming northerly on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary

I'm working with limited observations but there haven't been any recent reports of avalanche activity in the Caribous or surrounding regions. However, the presence of wind slabs and the lingering basal weakness on north to east facing terrain in the alpine give me concern that smaller wind slab avalanches could possibly step down to deeper layers.

Snowpack Summary

It sounds like people found some great bottomless riding conditions this weekend. The snow forecast for Monday is expected to bond well to the 50 to 80cm of low density snow that fell last week. Below this new snow we're still dealing with a variable early season snowpack. Changes in wind, freezing levels and snowfall amounts mean that the snowpack structure could be dramatically different depending on aspect and elevation. Layers of buried surface hoar or crusts may be found depending on where you dig. It would be wise to test these layers before committing to a slope. At higher elevations in the alpine, facets may be found near the ground, especially on north to east aspects. Remember that although it's starting to look like winter, its still a young snowpack. Rocks and stumps may be lurking unseen just below the surface. Ride with care!

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.