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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 7th, 2018–Apr 8th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Recent snowfall with strong winds has produced new slabs at higher elevations. Expect avalanche activity to increase on southerly aspects if the sun comes out.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, light westerly winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1500 m.MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1600 m rising to 2000 m by late afternoon.TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with afternoon precipitation, accumulation 5 mm, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 2600 m dropping to 2000 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, a large (size 2.5) persistent slab avalanche was triggered by a cornice on a northeast aspect around 1900 to 2200 m.  The slab likely released on the weak layer described in the Snowpack Summary.  Other similar large avalanches were observed, as described in this MIN post.Small to large (size 1 to 2) wind slabs were also reactive to skiers and large loads, generally failing in alpine terrain in immediate lee terrain features.  Loose wet avalanches were observed across the region on all aspects to size 1.5.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 cm of snow and strong southwesterly winds created new slabs at higher elevations.  This snow overlies various old surfaces including previous storm snow, melt freeze crusts on sunny aspects, and old wind slabs.  On ridges, cornices are reported to be large and fragile. At lower elevations, precipitation fell as rain and created wet snow conditions.A weak layer consisting of surface hoar, facets, or a sun crust from late March is now buried about 40 to 70 cm. This layer is spotty in its distribution. It is mostly likely to be problematic on shady aspects between 1900 m and 2250 m.The mid and lower snowpack are strong and well-settled.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.