Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Dec 16 – 17, 2018Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 8 years ago

Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

We have a very complicated snowpack that will require a careful and conservative assessment before committing to any avalanche terrain. Ice climbs with significant overhead hazard should be avoided until the hazard abates.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3
    Moderate winds, perfect for slab production has been observed at all elevations. Noticeably sensitive lee areas observed on NE, alpine aspects.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5
    The new snow will continue to settle over time. Determining the strength of bond at the Dec. 11 interface will be key to safe travel in open features at treeline and below.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3.5
    Normally found 20-30cm off the ground. Potential for step-down avalanches if you trigger a wind slab or storm slab.

Weather Forecast

Low approaching from the Coast. Building cloud, increasing SW winds and light precipitation for Sunday afternoon, with further snowfall and mild temperatures continuing into the week.A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

60cm of new snow has fallen since Dec. 11th in the Icefields, south to Rampart Creek areas (much less to the north), and has been redistributed by moderate SW wind. The resulting storm and wind slabs overly several weak interfaces - facets, crusts and isolated surface hoar. A deep persistent weaknesses still lingers in the bottom of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle triggered by this weeks storm resulted in numerous storm and wind slab avalanches up to size 3.5. Avalanche control work in the Parkers ridge area on Friday (Dec. 14th) produced numerous slab avalanches up to size 2.5 - direct evidence that despite natural triggering having slowed, human triggering remains likely.

Confidence

Regions covered