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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 11th, 2018–Dec 12th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Expect surface sluffing  in steep terrain with 15cm+ sitting on the Dec 9th surface hoar layer . Look for newly formed windslab on lee terrain. at and above treeline.

Weather Forecast

The forecast calls for 15cm of snow, alpine high temperature of -7C accompanied by light S'ly winds and a freezing level around 1000m. Tuesday night through Wednesday SW winds 30km/h gusting to 50km/h with light precipitation. Thursday calls for 40cm+/- of snow with moderate SW winds. Look for an increasing avalanche danger as the week progresses.

Snowpack Summary

15cm of storm snow now buries the Dec 9 surface hoar which was found up to 10mm in sheltered areas. The November 21st surface hoar is down 35-50cm and is most likely to be triggered on steep solar aspects, where it overlies a crust.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity observed or reported in the forecast area.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.