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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 13th, 2018–Apr 14th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Mt Hood.

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the Mt. Hood and you may trigger a variety of reactive avalanche problems with strong winds forming large Wind Slabs, upside-down and intense snowfall Friday creating large Storm Slabs, and rainfall saturating the snow surface at lower elevations creating the possibility of Loose Wet avalanches. Avoid open slopes greater than 35 degrees, particularly near and above treeline. Also avoid open avalanche paths where larger avalanches will be deadly if they release on the upper Mountain.

Detailed Forecast

Expect wind and storms slabs formed Thursday to continue to grow Friday as additional snow and wind impacts the Mt Hood area. Use visual clues such as blowing snow, drifts, and fresh cornices to identify and avoid steep wind loaded slopes. You are most likely to trigger a wind slab below cornices, on convex roll overs, or on cross-loaded features.

As snow continues to accumulate, you may be able to trigger storm slab avalanches near treeline. You are most likely to trigger storm slabs on unsupported slopes, near convex rollovers, and in very steep terrain.

At lower elevations, rain will develop wet surface snow conditions. If you see new rollerballs, fan shaped avalanche debris, or experience periods of intense rain, stay off of slopes greater than 35 degrees. Loose wet avalanches can entrain additional snow allowing them to grow large. Use caution if you travel in areas where loose wet avalanches may carry you into or off of terrain with higher consequences.

Watch for other spring hazards such as recent cornices along ridges, open glide cracks and opening creeks.

Snowpack Discussion

In general 20-24 inches of new snow fell in the Mt Hood area stations Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon, but new snow distribution varied by a factor of 2 due to wind transport. Moderate to strong south to west winds increased to strong on Friday at upper elevations and easily transported the new snow, forming new wind slabs near and above treeline on a variety of aspects and these are likely to be large. On the upper mountain at Mt. Hood, Wind Slabs are likely to be very large. The heavy snowfall rates on Friday also created storm slabs with heavier, denser snow on top of lower density layers.. This most recent round of precipitation fell on a new melt-freeze crust (4/11) formed during warm weather earlier this week. Observations demonstrate the new crust is strong and supportable. The snowpack now consists of a slab (wind or storm) on top of lower density snow, sitting on an older crust. That is a prime recipe for dangerous avalanche conditions in the upper snowpack.

Reports indicate that the snowpack consist of various layers of melt –freeze crusts, refrozen snow, and strong rounds. This has resulted in a generally strong snowpack without any significant layers of concern.

Observations

On Friday, Pro Observer Laura Green traveled in the Newton/Clark drainage between 4500 and 5900 ft. She avoided higher elevation or larger avalanche terrain due to strong winds, heavy snowfall and poor visibility. With warming temperatures during the day, snow surfaces were moist to wet. On a NNE aspect at 5600' she observed up to 2' of upside down snow on top of lower resistance wet snow layers. Although she didn't find a particularly cohesive slab in the location tested, she suspected they exist higher up.

On Friday, Mt. Hood pro patrol reported reactive 6-18" explosive triggered slabs with limited visibility up high. Snow was falling at the base, but it was very heavy and wet.

Mt Hood Meadows ski patrol reported wind slabs ranging from 8 to 12 inches (20-30cm). Wind and storm slabs were reactive during avalanche control work Thursday morning. The most recent melt-freeze crust was reported as strong and supportable.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.