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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2018–Mar 4th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

The sun packs a powerful punch this time of year. Increase your caution around slopes that see direct sunshine on Sunday.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with greater cloud cover in the east of the region. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures of -10.Monday: Mainly cloudy with isolated light flurries and a trace of new snow. Moderate southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures of -11.Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light southwest winds, increasing in the afternoon. Alpine high temperatures of -12.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past week there have been reports of both natural and skier triggered loose dry avalanches in steep terrain, as well as skier and explosive triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 1 that were reported on Monday.Last weekend there were two reports of snowmobilers triggering a size 1.5 and size 2 wind slab releases on northeast to east aspects between 2000-2100 m in the Window mountain area.

Snowpack Summary

After 10-25 cm of new snow fell over Friday night, about 25-40 cm of accumulated storm snow now covers previously wind-scoured, westerly slopes and old hard and soft wind slabs on leeward, easterly alpine and treeline slopes. Beneath these old wind slabs lies a well-settled mid-pack. The lower snowpack is generally weak with two primary concerns that are widespread:1) A widespread weak layer from mid-December composed of facets, crusts, and surface hoar that is 100-150 cm deep.2) A rain crust with sugary facets buried in late November near the bottom of the snowpack.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.