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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2015–Feb 22nd, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

While travel at lower elevation remains difficult with poor coverage, it is still winter above 2000m and new, as well as old slabs remain available for human triggering. Cooler temperatures and a bit more snow should help freshen things up.

Weather Forecast

The Northerly flow is bringing cooler conditions for the weekend. Skies will become overcast late Thursday night and a welcome pulse of snow should arrive midday Friday from the prairies. By noon Saturday expect clearing and dropping temperatures as a NE flow continues to bring Arctic air into the mountains.

Snowpack Summary

Thin new windslabs now sit on the Feb 14 temperature crust that exists to 2300m and thin solar crusts to mountain top. Below this old windslabs cap the 50 to 80 cm slab that seems well bonded to the Jan 31 crust. The Mid-December layer that is down over 1m  in most deep areas remains a concern in high shaded terrain presenting a shallow snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Conditions have remained relatively cool with good overnight freezes. The February 14 crust has not been heated to the point of breaking down and is effectively limiting avalanche problems to minor surface concerns below 2000m and to ridge top on solar aspects.  Elsewhere, concern for human triggering remains.

Confidence

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.