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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 5th, 2014–Apr 8th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Even short periods of solar heating or rain may cause an increase in the hazard beyond the posted Danger Ratings.  Be conservative Monday and Tuesday as the snowpack will be stressed by the highest freezing levels encountered yet this season.

Weather Forecast

Convective flurries combined with moderate West winds will allow for both snow and sunshine this weekend. With freezing levels around 15-1800m watch for rain at low elevations and solar heating to quickly affect surface snow. Monday freezing levels will  rise to 2700m. With a poor recovery and more heating into Tuesday the snowpack will be weakened

Snowpack Summary

Surface crusts on East through West aspects have formed with the daily heating pattern and rain below 1700m. Down 30 to 40cm on shaded aspects a shear persists on the 0325 interface.  The strong March crusts are found down 70 to 100cm on all but North aspects above treeline and overlie  the Feb facets that remain weak at about 1m above the ground.

Avalanche Summary

Superficial loose moist activity has been seen over the last few days as a result of heating. In the last week a few significant slabs were triggered by cornice failures associated with wind and warm conditions. Expect this activity to increase as we move into warmer days.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.