Avalanche forecast

Purcells

Mar 25 – 26, 2013Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    3–7
    Cornices are very large and weakly bonded. Cornices may fall off naturally during periods of strong solar radiation.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–6
    Small solar triggered slides,cornice fall, or thin-spot triggering may overload a persistent weakness buried near 100 cm deep. This could lead to surprisingly large avalanches.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–4
    Periods of strong solar radiation may release the slabs where it is sitting on a buried crust or loose wet slides. Katabatic & localized moderate ridge top winds may be forming new pockets of wind slab.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

The ridge of High pressure is expected to continue to influence the interior ranges for the next few days. As the ridge weakens we may see high cloud reducing the exposure to strong solar radiation. Nights are expected to continue to be clear and cool. Freezing levels in the North should rise during the day to about 1800 metres, and to about 2000 metres in the South. Some light precipitation may start to move in from the coast on Thursday afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

Natural and explosive cornice releases are a major theme. Explosives control in several parts of the region resulted in some large cornice falls that released some slab avalanches in the tracks that were restricted to the recent storm snow.A size 3 avalanche taking out the whole basin was triggered by snowmobilers Saturday in Hell Roaring Creek, just south of the region resulting in one fatality. Details are limited at this time; it may be indicative of the persistent slab problem (surface hoar and/or crust buried about 70 - 120 cm) we continue to describe. There was also a skier accidental size 2.0 avalanche on Sunday in an adjacent region (Glacier National Park), that resulted in one fatality.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow may be found on solar aspects up to about 2000 metres; surface faceting elsewhere. New melt/freeze crusts are developing due to cold clear nights and periods of strong solar radiation during the day. The new storm slab is about 30-50 cms deep, with wind transported pockets that are about 70 cms deep. Downflowing or katabatic winds have created small slabs in gulley and atypical low alpine and treeline elevations. Recent cornice growth is reported to be poorly bonded and breaks off easily with light triggers. A weak layer of surface hoar and/or a crust is buried down about 70-120 cms in the alpine and treeline elevations; this layer continues to produce "sudden" results. This surface hoar layer is producing variable results in snow profile tests, and continues to be a concern for professionals.

Regions covered