Hazard may change dependent on the amount of new snow. More snow than forecast may push the hazard rating higher than forecast.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: The high pressure systems that have dominated the weathr for the past 4 weeks have been pushed out by advancing Pacific storms. The forecast area may receive significant snowfall in the next few days.Monday Night: Freezing level at valley bottom, Winds: Light SW , gusting to strong at ridge top.Tuesday: Freezing Level: 900m; Precip: Trace, Winds: Light/Mod W gusting to Strong W/SW at ridge top.Wednesday: Freezing Level: 1400m; Precip: 10cm, Winds: Moderate W , gusting to Strong/Extreme SW at ridge top.Thursday: Freezing Level 1000m; Precip; Trace, Winds: Light W, with occasional gusting to strong at ridge top
Avalanche Summary
Activity over the weekend was limited to isolated pockets of small wind slab at ridgetop.
Snowpack Summary
Northerly outflow winds transformed the January 29th storm (10- 20cm) into pockets of wind slab up to 40cm deep immediately lee of ridgecrest. Surface hoar and surface facetting has occurred in sheltered locations above and below tree line leaving us with a weak surface to welcome the incoming new snowfall.Just underneath the settled storm snow and raggedy old wind slabs lies a significant weakness composed of large surface hoar (widespread in most sheltered and shaded areas at all elevations), a sun crust on south facing slopes, faceted grains (in colder areas or areas with a thinner snowpack), or a combination of the above. This variable weak layer is expected to become a problem early next week when precipitation once again graces the province. The rest of the snowpack is generally well consolidated.In isolated areas where the snowpack is thinner or in steep rocky features a facet/crust weakness near the ground remains a concern. In most places the depth of this layer combined with the strength of the overlying slab makes triggering an avalanche unlikely. However, if you were unlucky enough to find a weak spot the consequences could be deadly serious.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.