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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2017–Mar 16th, 2017

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

Continued precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday combined with moderate to strong southerly winds and the potential for the sun to come out on Thursday will continue to keep avalanche danger ratings elevated.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature -7 / Freezing level: 1000mFRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud scattered flurries / Moderate south wind / Alpine temperature -4 / Freezing level 1300mSATURDAY: Flurries, accumulation 15-20cm / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature -3 / Freezing level 1800mMore details can be found on the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

The past 3 days have seen a widespread natural avalanches to Size 3 at all elevations and on all aspects. Many of these triggered in the storm snow with some also stepping down to persistent weaknesses deeper in the snowpack. Wet slabs and loose wet avalanches have also been reported below treeline.

Snowpack Summary

Around 60-90cm of new snow has fallen at upper elevations over the past several days and has been redistributed by light to moderate southerly wind. Warm temperatures on Sunday through Tuesday has resulted in moist and/or wet surface snow on all aspects up to 2100m. The new snow sits on top of faceted snow as well as isolated small surface hoar in sheltered areas and a thin sun crust on steep southerly aspects. The persistent weakness buried late-February is now down 80-140 cm, and is composed of weak facetted crystals on a thick rain crust as high as about 1800m and facets on sun crust on steep southerly aspects. The mid and lower snowpack are well settled and stable in deeper snowpack areas, but may be weak and faceted in shallow areas.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.