Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions are dangerous near and above treeline.  The new snow and wind transport are taxing buried weak layers several feet deep.   On or adjacent to steep, leeward terrain, it is easy to trigger a large and dangerous avalanche.   Yesterday's large, remotely triggered avalanche is a canary in the coal mine for today's increasing avalanche hazards.  Cautious routefinding is essential: consider overhead hazards and the threat of natural avalanches in windloaded terrain.  You can safely enjoy the powder on slopes less than 30 degrees that aren't connected to steeper terrain above you.  Wind protected terrain has produced fewer and smaller avalanches in the past week.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and windloading will make it easier to trigger avalanches that break several feet thick on buried weak layers.  The large avalanche triggered yesterday exemplifies how persistent slabs can be remotely triggered from below a steep slope and propagate widely across the terrain.  Avalanche activity on facets and faceted crusts this week has been exclusively on windloaded slopes near and above treeline in the Southeast Mountains. but you may be able to find trouble below treeline in isolated areas.  Shooting cracks and collapses are clear warning signs of this problem; however, persistent slabs are notorious for giving unreliable feedback.  For example, there were numerous tracks on the slope before a skier was nearly caught in the large avalanche on Schuylkill Ridge earlier this week.  Give yourself a wide margin for error when assessing and managing persistent slabs.  

    1/29: Large, remotely triggered persistent slab on Purple Ridge

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Small slabs of freshly drifted snow will be easy to trigger near ridgelines or in crossloaded gullies.  Winds are blowing snow out of the west this morning and will shift to the northwest later today.  On aspects where wind loading overlaps with persistent slab structures, small windslabs can step down to create larger avalanches.  In crossloaded terrain features where persistent slab structures don't exist, you can still get into trouble if a wind slab drags you down a gulley or pushes you into rocks.  Avoid fresh deposits or terrain features where the winds are actively loading steep slopes.  

    Drifting snow observed yesterday afternoon with the arrival of the storm. Snowfall and stronger winds overnight added to the ingredients for more wind loading.

Avalanche Discussion

New snow and windloading are increasing the likelihood of triggering an avalanche today.  This video demonstrates why.   Storm totals thus far are coming in on the low end of forecast, while wind speeds are exceeding their mark.  As of 4 a.m., there is 3" to 5" of new snow in the Northwest Mountains and 1" to 2" in the Southeast Mountains.  A few more inches are on the way today.  That's enough fuel for today's winds to work with.  Alpine stations are showing westerly winds blowing 20 to 30 mph, gusting into the 50's this morning, and winds should continue through the day.  The most dangerous conditions are on higher elevation, leeward terrain features.  Northeast through southeast aspects above treeline have produced the largest and most widespread avalanche activity in the past five days.  In the Northwest Mountains, avalanches have been breaking on a layer of facets or faceted crusts in the middle of the snowpack (the 1/19 layer), one to three feet deep.  In the Southeast Mountains, avalanches have been failing on both the 1/19 layer (a foot or two deep), and on depth hoar near the ground (several feet deep).  As you descend in elevation and out of the wind, persistent slabs become thinner and less likely.  This is especially true in the Southeast Mountains, where snowfall has been significantly less since weak layers were buried in mid-January.  In favored snowfall areas of Kebler Pass and the Upper Slate, the ingredients for a persistent slab avalanche below treeline are more common, especially with snow adding stress today.

Put steep leeward terrain on your no-go list today, including the low angle runouts below. Our media gallery below highlights some examples of recent avalanches in that type of terrain.  You can find safer riding in wind sheltered terrain, but persistent slabs are still possible to trigger: Pay attention for changing conditions today and look for signs of unstable snow.  Shooting cracks and collapses are clear warning signs.  Choose terrain features that will be forgiving if you do trigger an avalanche.  Steep pitches that dump you into a gulley or bash you through trees increase the consequences of being wrong in your snowpack assessments.    

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