Northern New Mexico

It's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on steep NW through E facing terrain above treeline and isolated slopes near treeline that are exposed to winds.  It's on these slopes that you may find stiff hard slabs with weak facets below.  Before committing to a slope, take the time to dig down into the snow to assess if the snowpack harbors this poor snowpack structure. Below treeline, the snowpack is shallower and we lack a cohesive slab needed for a slab avalanche.

As we settle into the third week of high-pressure the overall shallow snowpack has been faceting rather quickly. The faceting process has taken a hold of the entire snowpack, with very weak near-surface facets on the surface and continued weakening of the deeper facet layers.   The only layer that has been exempt from the faceting process has been the knife hard wind slab that formed prior to Christmas. This hard slab is the key to our avalanche problem right now, as it is the only slab that's able to propagate the faceted weak layers below in the snowpack. Typically we're concerned about identifying weak layers in a snowpit.  However,  with the entire snowpack made up of weak faceted layers, it may be better to focus on identifying this hard slab in travels.  This should be rather easy to do even on your boards as it is supportable and typically located  20 to 30cm below the faceted snow on the surface.    

As we push further away from the last significant loading event from Dec 29th, it's become increasingly harder to trigger an avalanche. NW through E aspects near and above treeline that did not slide naturally during the avalanche cycle at the end of December continues to be able to propagate with easy to moderate force in long column tests in snowpits. This speaks to how poor the snowpack structure is and the inability of the facets to strengthen.  We're living in this low likelihood of triggering an avalanche but consequences still remain high if you get the slope to avalanche. It may not be the first or second person on a slope but may be the fifth, if even at all.  Don't let your guard down if you're stepping out into steeper terrain. Our lack of reported avalanches over the last week is probably more a function of the lack of users (triggers) in this terrain than it is a strengthening snowpack.  The only way to assess if a poor snowpack structure exists on any given slope is by taking the time to dig down into the snow.        

With warming temperatures and powerful winter sun here at our southern latitude, we may see small loose snow sluffs in steeper terrain that could step down into deeper weak layers entraining more snow and creating a larger avalanche.

Below and near treeline, our snowpack is entirely faceted and shallow with lots of ground hazards. Stepping out of your skis in this terrain will result in immediately plummeting to the ground. There is certainly no shortage of weak snow to be found here. What we haven't been able to sustain all season long though is a cohesive slab and that's exactly what we lack currently. All season long, anytime we have developed a slab below treeline, the faceting process destroys it nearly as quickly as it was formed. Due to the cohesion-less nature of the snow, you may be able to produce small loose dry snow avalanches in steep terrain features that could sweep you off your feet.