Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist near and above treeline where SW winds continue to load slopes and are creating stiffening wind slabs. Recent snow and wind have created 2 to 4-foot slabs that have greatly stressed the faceted persistent weak layers in the snowpack. Below treeline, persistent slab avalanches will be smaller but can be just as dangerous if they sweep you over a cliff or into a terrain trap. You may be able to remotely trigger an avalanche from a long-distance away.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 35 degrees as any avalanche triggered may run long distances and be able to injure or bury you. Pay attention to loud audible collapses and shooting cracks as these are indications of unstable snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    2 to 4-foot  slabs from the latest round of snow have greatly stressed the faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. North through East aspects has seen continued loading from the moderate to strong SW winds that have easily been transporting the abundance of snow near and above treeline. At these elevations, faceted weak layers exist under hard slabs that formed from wind events earlier in the season.  As we've seen with recent natural activity over the last couple of days, these avalanches can propagate wide and step down to faceted weak layers just above the ground.  

    Below treeline, slabs rest on top of an entirely faceted snowpack to the ground.   These avalanches may not propagate as far or wide but could take the entire snowpack with it taking you for a nasty ride through trees, over a cliff or into a terrain trap. 

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like collapsing and shooting cracks. You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche from the flats below or adjacent slopes. Stay off of or underneath slopes that are greater than 35 degrees as we may see avalanches capable of running long distances.

    Large more recent natural avalanche on a ENE aspect failing on facets near the ground beneath a knife hard slab. Continued loading from moderate to strong SW winds will stress these deeper weak layers.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Continued moderate to strong SW winds over the last two days has easily been transporting the abundance of new snow.  Wind drifted snow has been stiffening and thickening slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain near and above treeline.  These wind slabs may be able to propagate further than expected. Many slopes in this terrain avalanched naturally on Tuesday and these slabs are forming on a smooth bed surface.  

    Pay attention to shooting cracks on the surface and obvious wind drifted pillows or changing of the surface stiffness.  A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

    Wind drifted snow on a NE aspect is loading slopes as well as creating wind slabs near and above treeline.

Avalanche Discussion

The post-storm winds have invaded our mountains.  Moderate to strong SW winds over the last couple of days have continued to load North through East aspects near and above treeline.  Winds will continue today before a quick-hitting system moves in tonight with 2 to 4 inches of snow and strong winds into Saturday. Our snowpack is not getting much of a rest and as a whole is struggling to adjust. 

Many natural avalanches occurred Tuesday during the final day of the four-day weather event where we picked up 2 to 3 feet of storm snow and over 2" of water. We have seen more recent natural avalanches over the last two days, especially on North through East aspects near and above treeline, where wind loading continues to stress deeper weak layers.  These avalanches have been large, propagating wide distances and failing or stepping down to facets beneath hard slabs close to the ground.  These thicker hard slabs were able to hold more weight and may have just needed that little extra load to tip the scales.  Give large avalanche paths wide berths as we've seen avalanches running long distances well into the flats.

We continue to get widespread collapsing and shooting cracks at all elevations in our travels.  Below and Near treeline on slopes that don't have hard slabs that formed prior to this last storm,  settling storm slabs rest on top of weak facets all the way to the ground.  The weight of these slabs is enough on its own to stress the weak facets below. Once we hop on a slope were getting the slope to easily collapse.  We are seeing that shooting cracks at these elevations are not propagating as far as they were at the end of the storm on Tuesday.  Although we've dropped the avalanche danger down to Moderate at this elevation band, triggering a persistent slab avalanche is still possible especially in steep more open terrain. 

It's not all bad news, with another active weather week and potentially deepening snowpack, the weak facets that have plagued us this season should start to heal and gain strength. As with everything right now, it's just going to take time. If you are getting out continue to stay vigilant and not let your guard down in the search of powder.  Continue to practice good travel techniques, giving big avalanche paths wide berths and always thinking about the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche.  Even a small avalanche can have serious implications if it sweeps you over a cliff or into a terrain trap.  Sticking to low angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you is a great way to stay safe and enjoy the powder.  

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