Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist near and above treeline. Transportable winds today will help build stiffening wind slabs near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain.  Continued loading of slopes at higher elevations will stress faceted persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Below treeline, the snowpack is shallow and weak with newly formed slabs resting on top of faceted snow. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and stiffening of the snow surface. Avoid slopes that are actively loading   Careful snowpack evaluation and cautious route-finding are essential today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    West winds have picked up overnight and will remain moderate to strong today.  These transportable wind speeds should easily transport the abundance of snow that has fallen over the last several days. Winds will help stiffen and thicken slabs near and above treeline that could be upwards of 3 feet thick on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain. These slabs have formed on a variety of older firmer surfaces that may allow them to run long distances.  Expect cornices to start building and may break back further than expected on ridgelines. 

    Pay attention to changes in the snow surface like stiffening of the snow and obvious wind drifted pillows.  Clues like shooting cracks off of your boards are another indication that these slabs have gained cohesiveness and may be able to propagate wider than expected.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes that are actively loading.  A smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weaker layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

     

    West winds have picked up overnight and will continue to pick up throughout the day.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Over the last five days, we've added close to 2 feet of snow with over 1.5" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Deeper faceted weak layers continue to linger in the snowpack and have been showing signs of healing and strengthening but still show signs of being reactive with moderate to hard force. An increase in winds today should continue to load slopes especially near and above treeline inching us closer to a potential tipping point. The snowpack right now is incredible variable with snowpack depths varying greatly across slopes.  Shallower snowpacks including those below treeline continue to remain incredibly weak and faceted and now have 2-foot storm slabs on top.  Deeper snowpacks (2 + meters) can be found above treeline where faceted weak layers will be more difficult to trigger unless you hit a "sweet spot" where the slab is thinner.

    Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may not be present in travels and lure you into steeper terrain.  Using a probe pole to feel for strong over weak layering or taking the time to dig down into the snowpack is a great way to assess if this poor snowpack structure exists.    Any persistent slab avalanche would be large and dangerous potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Giving avalanche paths wide berths and avoiding be on or connected to slopes over 35 degrees is a great way to stay safe. 

    New storm snow formed on a variety of different surfaces from crusts to hard wind packed slabs. We continue to find faceted layers underneath these slab/crust combinations which may be a faceted weak layer of concern.

Avalanche Discussion

The parade of storms has finally come to an end bringing us close to 2 feet of snow and over 1.5" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Winds during these storms has amazingly been calm, but that will be changing today into tomorrow as we return to westerly flow.  With no shortage of new snow available for the forecasted transportable wind speeds, expect slabs to continue to build and stiffen and may become more reactive than what we've been seeing over the last couple of days.  With first light this morning, I can already see snow billowing off the ridgeline of Vallecito. We did get reports early this morning of a couple natural avalanches above treeline from cornices naturally dropping on slopes. 

We've only observed a couple of natural storm slab and loose snow avalanches over the last couple of days with limited visibility. Surprisingly we haven't seen avalanches break down into deeper weak layers, which would be the first significant storm of the season not to produce large persistent slab avalanches. Clearly, we haven't reached the tipping point, but how close are we?  With continued loading today from increased winds we may be inching closer to a tipping point on some slopes.  The most likely slopes will be North through East aspects on the leeward side of ridgelines where we expect to see the greatest amount of loading.

The faceted persistent weak layers that have plagued us all season are showing signs of gaining strength as they get buried deeper by storms over the last month. In travels, we continue to find variability when it comes to snowpack depths. Some slopes have close to 3 meters of snow with hard to trigger weak layers closer to the ground. Other slopes have shallow snowpacks mainly below and near treeline and slopes that have previously avalanched. These slopes continue to be worrisome with weak faceted snow still comprising almost half of the snowpack.  

With warming and a return of the sun today, we could see natural loose snow avalanches on steep solar aspects. The loose snow avalanches may be big enough to push you around or potentially bury you in a terrain trap.  These smaller slides can also step down into deeper layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

Unfortunately, it continues to be a tough month for avalanche fatalities with several additional accidents over the past week. We are approaching that time of year where I think a lot of us are used to finally being able to, or at least looking forward to, expanding into the terrain we've been staring at all winter. The temptation is especially difficult when we just received close to two feet of powder! Let's allow our poor snowpack structure to play its hand regarding this new load before we step out into consequential terrain. Stay safe out there gang!

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