Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions will develop Wednesday night and continue on Thursday as a major storm impacts the Olympics. Large avalanches will occur at all elevations including open slopes in the forests. Avoid all areas where an avalanche may start, run or stop.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A warming trend accompanies heavy snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday that could bring 12-18" of snow in the Hurricane Ridge area above the 5000 ft rain/snow line. Expect naturally occurring storm slab avalanches overloading and entraining plentiful lower-density powder that has fallen over in recent days. Avoid all avalanche open slopes where avalanches can start, run or stop.

    Example: A Storm Slab that likely failed as temperatures warmed.

    Photo: Vetta Mountain Guides

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The changeover from snow to rain will rapidly destabilize fresh and pre-existing lower-density snow. Wet loose avalanches will release naturally anywhere from around 5000 ft down to below 2000 ft where we have built a substantial snowpack over the last several weeks. These avalanches will not be your garden variety dribbling loose wet avalanches. Instead, they will gouge deeply and build significant speed and force. Avoid traveling on or under open slopes steeper than 35 degrees.

    Example: Wet Avalanche debris coming off a steep slope.

    Photo: Austen Beason

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanches will be larger and more consequential in the southern part of the Olympic mountains due to higher precipitation amounts.

Wednesday was the calm before the storm with light snow developing in the afternoon. The intensifying snowfall, warming, and winds will build avalanche danger rapidly Wednesday night. Danger will likely peak early Thursday as snow levels reach 5000 ft or higher. Thursday will be a good day to avoid the backcountry and let this sudden change to our deep, previously mostly dry snowpack unfold.

This event may adversely impact low elevation infrastructure. The snowpack may absorb significant water weight, potentially resulting in roof collapses or even potentially fatal "roofalanches".

Recent storms have added around 20" of snowpack depth at Hurricane Ridge since Sunday morning.

Last weekend, observers noted a storm interface (preserved stellars) about 6" down that may become a failure point if the layer remains intact.  

2021-22 Forecast Schedule: Avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week when the Hurricane Ridge road is closed, forecast information will be updated daily to include expected conditions and relevant travel advice under the No Rating label.

Regions covered