Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions remain generally safe with 2 to 4 inches of snowfall expected today.  Basal weak layers on the north half of the compass are becoming dormant and unreactive to the weight of a person.  Avalanches are unlikely but not impossible.  In extreme terrain where you find a shallow snowpack in rocky terrain due to wind redistribution, avalanches remain a potential.  Continue to expose only one person at a time to avalanche hazards in the event you are very unlucky and trigger a surprise avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Persistent Slabs are a very low likelihood but high consequence concern on the northern half of the compass, where faceted weak layers still lurk near the ground.  Weak layers near the ground continue to improve and are trending towards an unreactive state in the Southeast Mountains.  It has been nearly three weeks since the last natural avalanche on basal weak layers, while the last explosive-triggered avalanche was on January 10th. This avalanche problem has become very unlikely to human triggers. You can further reduce your risk of triggering this avalanche problem by avoiding trigger points where the snowpack depth transitions quickly from shallow to deep.

    One of the few avalanches triggered since the New Year breaking near the ground.  This was an explosive triggered hard slab on a west aspect at Irwin, where slab depths are variable due to seasonal wind patterns.  

Avalanche Discussion

A small storm is forecasted to deposit 2 to 4 inches of snow today.  Meager snow totals will not have an impact on the danger rating which remains at LOW.  At the highest elevations, west-northwest winds may drift the few inches of new snow onto leeward features, but not enough snow is forecasted to create a new avalanche problem or cause concern.  This little storm will likely just improve riding conditions.

Basal weak layers that were responsible for the extensive avalanche activity at the end of December have largely become unreactive and no longer present much of a concern for human-triggered avalanches.  It has been nearly three full weeks since the last reported deep-failing natural avalanches and over two weeks since the last explosive-triggered avalanche.  The snowpack has entered a quiet period and avalanches are very unlikely until mother nature produces a significant storm or temperatures increase above seasonal norms and new avalanche problems develop.  Even during periods of LOW danger, small avalanches remain a possibility in extreme terrain.  If you choose to recreate in extreme terrain consider the consequences of a small avalanche and what would happen if you were knocked down by moving snow or fell due to firm snow surfaces.

During periods of LOW danger, it is important to maintain safe travel habits.  Expose only one person at a time to avalanche hazards, tell others your plan for the day, and perform trailhead beacon checks.  Following these procedures will provide an extra margin of safety even if you happen to be very unlucky and trigger an unexpected avalanche.

Regions covered