Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Low danger does not mean no danger.  You may be able to find unstable snow on isolated slopes today producing small avalanches. Small isolated wind slabs exist on West aspects above treeline. Pay attention to wind drifted pillows and stiffening of the surface on cross-loading gullies and terrain features.  Persistent weak layers under hard slabs on N through E aspects above treeline have become difficult to trigger but not impossible. Take the time to identify if these problems exist in the terrain you are interested in traveling. Be mindful of the shallower portions around rock outcrops and the margins of the slab as these will be the most likely places to impact those weak layers.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    Triggering an avalanche on weak faceted layers beneath stiff slabs is becoming increasingly difficult as we move further away from the last significant loading event.   Not all slopes on N through E aspects have this poor snowpack structure so take the time to assess if the slope you plan to ski or ride has this strong over weak structure.   These hard slabs will easily support the weight of a skier or rider until you find that "sweet spot".  Typically near the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops where the slab is thinner. Although these avalanches would likely be small, the consequences could still be quite high with lots of natural obstacles on the ground.

    The strong over weak snowpack structure you can find on N through E aspects above treeline

Avalanche Discussion

Tuesday's into Wednesday's storm dropped 2-4" of low-density snow with .1 - .2" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Moderate Northeast winds have formed isolated pockets of wind slabs on West aspects above treeline.  Before this storm, west-facing slopes in the alpine were mainly stripped back to bare ground or had a very shallow snowpack. Yesterday, we were finding these small wind slabs to be confined to cross-loaded gullies and chutes and stubborn to get to move on slopes less than 38 degrees.  Look for wind drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow surface.  Obvious clues like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks are indications you've found these slabs.  A small ride in an avalanche could have serious consequences in the shallow snowpack. 

 We've become a facet factory over the last week with big temperature swings from the warm sunny days and cold clear nights in the overall shallow snowpack.  We are finding more and more slopes near and below treeline that have become cohesion-less faceted snow from top to bottom in the snowpack.  In steeper terrain, it's easy to get this snow to entrain itself creating small Loose Dry snow avalanches. Although typically not a big problem, if in steep complex terrain this snow can knock you off your feet and take you over a  cliff band or sweep you into a terrain trap

It's been a week since we had natural and skier triggered persistent slab avalanches on North through East aspects above treeline. As we push further and further since the last significant loading event it's become increasingly difficult to trigger an avalanche on these persistent weak layers.  Hard slabs formed from the strong wind event on 11/8 and now have upwards of a foot of snow on top. With moderate NE winds over the last two days, the snow surface may be stiffening into a more cohesive slab on the surface.  Old snow from October that is weak and faceted exists underneath these hard slabs.  This snowpack structure is variable in this terrain and impossible to tell if it exists without taking the time to dig down into the snow. Be mindful of the shallower portions around rock outcrops and the margins of the slab as these will be the most likely places to impact those weak layers. You can easily reduce your risk by avoiding these slopes all together.

Lower angled terrain less than 35 degrees on wind-sheltered slopes near treeline offer some good skiing and riding.  It's just the beginning of December and overall shallow snowpack.  Natural obstacles such as rocks and downed timber continue to be a hazard. 

Regions covered