Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions will develop on Saturday as strong winds transport new snow onto a variety of aspects and further downslope than usual.  Avoid open slopes steeper than 35 degrees near and above treeline.  As the storm piles on through Saturday night, large and deadly avalanches may release down to weaker old snow layers 2-4 ft below the surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With a foot or more of new snow possible through Saturday, followed by rising temperatures and increasing ridgeline winds, you can likely trigger a slab avalanche within the new snow or at the new/old snow interface.  Larger avalanches are more likely on wind loaded slopes.  Watch for cracking in the new snow.  Avoid convex rollovers and steep unsupported slopes where you might trigger a storm slab avalanche. 

    As you climb into more wind-exposed terrain, feel for firm or hollow sounding snow and generally avoid open slopes steeper than 35 degrees near and above treeline.  Firmer slabs may form on a variety of aspects and further downslope than usual due to the strength of the winds, making shallow wind slabs possible at mid-elevations. 

    While the rest of the range saw widespread temperatures above freezing, the east north once again hung onto cooler, below freezing temperaures Friday.  This should change on Saturday and small loose wet avalanches will be possible at lower elevations around the rain/snow line.  If you find yourself sinking in wet snow more than ankle-deep or see natural warning signs like pinwheels or rollerballs releasing from very steep slopes, move to lower angle terrain.  Even small loose wet avalanches can knock you off your feet and can cause injury in the wrong piece of terrain. 

     

    (12/31/2020) Look for shooting cracks in new or wind drifted snow as a sign that you can trigger a slab avalanche.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    It's a good time to step back while mother nature stresses the snowpack and potentially re-awakens deeper instabilities Saturday and Saturday night.  Avoid hanging out, and grouping up in potentially consequential runout zones where large and deadly avalanches may run. This may include sparsely treed slopes or other terrain traps. Watch for obvious signs of instability like whumphing collapses, or cracks shooting through the snow.  

    Persistent slab avalanches are still on our radar due to a weak layer of sugary snow that sits above and below a thin crust from early December. This structure continues to warrant respect, even though the chances of initiating a slide have decreased.  The layer of concern is a thin weak layer of small facets (and in places surface hoar) buried about 2-4 feet below the surface. Near the top of Washington Pass, this weak layer will be sitting on an icy crust. Further east in the zone, the crust has decomposed into a mix of melt forms and weak grains. At lower elevations, there's less concern for triggering this layer.

    (12/31/2020) Orange lines outline crowns and debris from a very large (+D2.5) slab avalanche that occurred during a widespread avalanche cycle on Dec 21st. The red line shows a small slab avalanche that occurred this week, as loose snow pouring off the cliffs triggered recently drifted slabs about a foot below the surface. NE, 6500-6700ft, West Fork of the Methow River. Photo Josh Hirshberg.

Avalanche Discussion

No new slab avalanches have been reported through the 31st.  About 6-10" of snow has fallen since Christmas Day.  Snowpack tests showed that propagation was still possible on the early Dec weak snow/crust interface about 2 ft down at around 5700' on Driveway Butte.  With the weekend storm cycle on our doorstep, we'll see if significant new loading awakens deeper instabilities in the snowpack. 

Happy New Year from the Northwest Avalanche Center!  We hope you have a safe and healthy start to 2021. 

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources. Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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