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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 12th, 2015–Dec 13th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Below treeline, the December 2nd surface hoar remains reactive to skier loads.

Weather Forecast

Mostly cloudy today with isolated flurries and freezing levels remaining below 1050m.  A pacific storm front will track into the area this evening bringing snow and strong SW winds.  Up to 15cm of new snow is expected with precipitation subsiding by early Monday morning.  Temperatures will remain cool.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 100cm of storm snow is settling into a slab. At treeline and below, this slab is sitting on the Dec 2nd surface hoar layer. The Dec 2nd persistent week layer remains reactive to stability tests in the hard range. On solar aspects in the alpine  the Dec 2nd layer is a sun crust.  15cm of recent snow now covers a supportive crust below 1700m.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive tests produced 2 size 1.5 avalanches triggered in the storm slab at treeline.  No other new avalanches were observed.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.