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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 17th, 2017–Mar 18th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

A slight break in precipitation today but more is on the way this evening. Recently formed storm slabs are still reactive to human triggering.

Weather Forecast

A low pressure system is building off shore and will arrive at Rogers Pass late this evening. Mainly cloudy for today with freezing levels rising to 1500m and light winds from the south. Expect 14cm of snow tonight with the arrival of the storm. Freezing levels climb to 1800m Saturday with another 22cm of snow and SW winds gusting to 75km/h.

Snowpack Summary

Intense precipitation and strong southerly winds have created touchy storm and wind slabs above treeline. Freezing levels have come down creating a breakable surface crust below treeline with moist/ wet snow below. Weak interfaces in the upper snowpack are still easily trigged by human loading. The late Feb crust interface is now down 1-1.5m.

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity subsided yesterday at higher elevations. Below treeline, small loose wet avalanches were observed next to the highway corridor. A field team ski cut a size 1.5 storm slab on a steep SE facing roll at 2000m. Newly formed storm and wind slabs remain reactive and will once again fail naturally with the forecasted precipitation .

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.