Conditions can change quickly this time of year; rain or sun will rapidly increase danger. Minimize your exposure to steep avalanche paths being loaded by westerly winds, and slopes threatened by cornices and glide cracks.
Weather Forecast
Today should be mainly cloudy with flurries, with alpine temps of 0 and moderate to strong west winds. Possible sunny periods this afternoon may further destabilize the snowpack. On Saturday, freezing levels are forecast to rise to 2300m with increasing cloud and wet flurries. On Sunday expect scattered flurries, sunny breaks and strong west winds.
Snowpack Summary
A mix of rain and snow fell to 1900m, with temps dropping just to zero, giving no overnight freeze. 10cm of moist HN at treeline (deeper in lee alpine features) is bonding poorly to a crust below. The snowpack on solar aspects is warming to near isothermal levels. There are a series of crusts in the top meter, and the Feb 10 SH is down 1.25m.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche activity began mid day yesterday. Backcountry skiers reported hearing and observing numerous natural avalanches up the Connaught drainage. Cheops N3 and N4 (STS) were size 2.5, with debris 1.5m deep at valley bottom. Along the highway, size 2.5 loose moist avalanches ran onto the fans of steep paths and one glide crack released a size 2.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.