Conditions are changing. Warm temps, rain, snow and wind make for variable conditions and challenging decisions. It's time to carefully assess terrain choices and use good group management practices.
Weather Forecast
Precip should taper off this morning, and we may see some sunny breaks this afternoon. Alpine temps will remain around 0'C, with moderate gusting to strong S'ly winds forming new windslabs above treeline. Friday will warm with sunny periods, which may destabilize the new snow. On Sat a a warm windy storm arrives which may bring significant snow.
Snowpack Summary
Freezing levels are hovering around 1900m. There is up to 10cm of new snow in the alpine overlying a variety of surfaces from suncrust on solar aspects to wind slabs and crusts on shaded slopes. Strong S'ly winds are forming new windslabs. Crusts in the top 20cm are weakening with continued warm temps and triggering of deeper layers is possible.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were observed yesterday but visibility was poor. On Tues skiers ski cut a size 2.5 from a steep S asp at 2350m. The avalanche ran several hundred meters entraining the moist surface snow. North of the Park a size 3 skier triggered avalanche resulted in a fatality. This showed that while unlikely, triggering deep slabs is possible.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.