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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 3rd, 2014–Dec 4th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Continue to be cautious and conservative in your terrain selection. Conditions vary and touchy layers exist in many areas.

Weather Forecast

Today is forecast to be mostly clear but with a few flurries, light to moderate NW winds at ridgetop, and a high of -8'C. Thursday will be similar but slightly warmer with temps to -5'C. By Friday a moist and warm system will bring clouds and flurries. ~6cm of snow is forecast with freezing levels around 1500m.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temps have tightened up the wet slab for now but are also weakening the snowpack over time. Snowpack tests on two touchy weak layers (a variety of surface hoar, crusts and facets) buried down ~100 and ~130cm continue to indicate the may be triggered by skiers and produce very large avalanches. A hard rain crust exists below ~1600m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed over the past 3 days. Prior to the cold snap, a widespread avalanche cycle occurred. Large avalanches, with wide propagations, demonstrated the potential of buried weak layers. Some areas have not yet avalanched, for example the Frequent Flyer path up the Connaught Drainage.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.