Avalanche Forecast

A strong front will move across the region overnight Wednesday and early Thursday, causing moderate to heavy rain to high snow levels, about 7-8000 feet. Cooling and a change to snow showers is expected later Thursday with a change to light showers. It is hoped that the rain overnight Wednesday and early Thursday will trigger any remaining stubborn, persistent layers that may be lingering along the west slope areas. These layers can be tricky to forecast just how much load will be needed, but we will hopefully be hitting a reset button following the cooling later Thursday and beyond. We are continuing to list the early and mid January persistent slab problem as unlikely in the forecast until we get on the other side of this rain event and further observations confirm it is no longer an issue.

Previous wind slab in the near and above treeline may be loaded and weakened by wet surface snow. This avalanche problem may be getting unlikely, but watch for signs of previous firmer transported snow mainly on northwest to southeast aspects.

Also avoid slopes below buckling snow and glide cracks which can release at any time without warning.

Rain should change to snow gradually through the day Thursday and diminish. 

Weather/Snowpack

Two fair weather periods earlier this month allowed surface hoar and near surface faceting to occur. These persistent weak layers were buried intact on January 3rd and 11th.

A warm front last Thursday caused heavy rain on the Washington volcanoes. Heavy snow changed to lighter freezing rain and rain in the passes. This caused an avalanche cycle and consolidation along the west slopes.

This was followed by cooler weather and some snow. NWAC stations along the west slopes indicate about 3-6 inches for the 2 days ending Sunday morning.

Mild weather with freezing levels approaching 8000 feet with rain in the Mt Baker area has caused increasing wet snow conditions by late Wednesday afternoon.

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer Lee Lazzara was near the Mt Baker Ski Area on Sunday and found that the rain late last week had percolated to at least 1 meter. He did not find signs of the January 3rd or 11th persistent layers and did not get significant stability test results. He noted glide cracks on some slopes.

NWAC pro-observer Ian Nicholson was at Skyline Ridge at Stevens Pass on Sunday and at 5000 feet, he found that the upper snowpack crystals were rounding and stabilizing. He found the January 3rd and 11th layers at 85 and 115 cm are surviving, but slowly breaking down and were not reactive.

NWAC pro-observer Dallas Glass was at Paradise on Sunday and saw evidence of wind transport and solar effects which were limited by clouds in the afternoon.

A private report and a report via the NWAC Observations page indicate a loose wet avalanche cycle occurred in the Alpental Valley on Sunday. Another report via the NWAC Observations page noted loose wet activity at Stevens on Monday.

NWAC pro-observer Dallas Glass was out again in the Alpental Valley Monday. He reports large roller balls and more loose-wet and some wet slab avalanches on W, solar and E aspects. He also noted buckling snow and widening glide cracks, but without releases. He identified the January 3rd and 11th layers on a north slope at 4700 feet, but the layers did not indicate reactive test results.

Large glide or climax avalanches continue to be a concern, especially with unsupportive terrain features such as large rock faces. One such release occurred Wednesday afternoon, Jan. 27th, in the Stevens Pass area, a size 2.5 climax slide released from an unsupported rock face at about 5600 feet on a NE aspect. Fortunately, the terrain was closed and no one was on the slope below.