Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
4 · High
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Severe weather continues to effect the park.

We suspect that any pathways that have already run will have been re-loaded

Alpine travel is not reccommended

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2.5

    With continuing gale NW winds, heavy precipitation, poor visibility and a widespread avalanche cycle travel is not advised. Stay clear of avalanche paths and avoid travelling through or beneath avalanche terrain.

  • Wet Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Wet slab activity is likely to occur as rain weakens and saturates the snowpack. Loose wet avalanching may entrain enough to trigger wet slabs Stay clear of avalanche paths and avoid travelling beneath steep slopes.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Heavy Rainfall to at least 2200m will continue to weaken and add weight to the existing snowpack. Towards the afternoon the freezing level is forecast to lower.As the snowpack becomes increasingly saturated Loose Wet activity will increase and maybe triggered in start zone quite high above youStay clear of avalanche paths and avoid travelling beneath steep slopes.

Recent Avalanche Activity

0825 - observations have been obscured by continuing storm cycle

0824 - Lw avalanching size 1.5 noted across rain affected aspects and elevations. Observations have been limited due to cloud and no operational days due to wind. A large natural avalanche cycle is likely to have occurred

Current Snowpack Conditions

The Storm cycle continues with heavy snowfall above 2000m and heavy rainfall below. Freezing levels will fluctuate and then lower towards Wednesday evening.It is likely that there has been well over 2m of new snow at Tasman Saddle with associated gale force NW windsThere is now a high degree of uncertainty in the snowpack structure.

The snowpack will now need a full re-assessment

Mountain Weather

Rain, with heavy falls, turning to snow in the evening.

Wind at 1000 metres

Gale northwesterly 65 km/h, dying out late afternoon. Easterly 40 km/h developing in the evening.

Wind at 2000 metres

Gale northwesterly 70 km/h, rising to severe gale 95 km/h in the morning. Changing westerly 35 km/h late afternoon, then changing easterly 35 km/h at night.

Wind at 3000 metres

Severe gale northwesterly 100 km/h, easing to gale 65 km/h late afternoon, and to 45 km/h in the evening.

Freezing level

2000 metres, lifting to 2400 metres in the morning, then lowering to 1200 metres in the evening.

Sliding Danger

Gale force North West to Westerly winds will have stripped ridgelines and windward aspects. If you must travel - carry ice axe and crampons

Forecast Confidence

Low

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered