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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2013–Dec 15th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

New storm snow with strong winds will to keep the danger ratings considerable until the next storm arrives.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: The frontal system will move through the north Saturday night and  continue south on Sunday. Light to locally moderate precipitation amounts and strong westerly winds. Freezing level will rise to around 1300m.Monday: Strong northwesterly flow will prevail over the northern interior with very light or no precipitation, freezing levels will drop to valley bottoms.Tuesday: Another Wave of moist Pacific air will move into the interior for Tuesday bringing moderate to locally heavy precipitation, strong winds and rising temperatures.  Freezing levels should remain at or close to valley bottoms.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. The lack of observations likely speaks more to the lack of observations rather than actual conditions. With forecast snowfall, winds and warm temperatures, a spike in avalanche activity is likely through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack levels vary across the region. At treeline, the average snow depth is 120-150cm, and below the season average.Moderate to heavy snow fall on top of the recent light snow will continue to add load above buried weak layers. The  upper snowpack contains wind slabs, crusts, surface hoar, and facets. Rising temperatures forecast over the next few days will consolidate the storm slab above these weak layers. It's difficult to determine when the slab will become more sensitive to light triggers like skiers and sledders. These weak layers are expected to be persistent, although in many areas the upper slab is not yet stiff enough for slab avalanches. When temperatures rise, and withadditional snow, expect these layers to become more reactive.Digging deeper, into the mid-pack, a couple of persistent weak layers (surface hoar and facets) can be found that formed in mid and late November. Near the base of the snowpack, an early season rain crust exists. The continuous loading of new snow and the rising temperatures may be enough to wake up these previously dormant layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.