Avalanche Forecast

Moderate -

Saturday night: Flurries bringing approximately 5 cm of new snow. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Sunday: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing a trace to 5 cm of new snow. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level to 1500 metres with alpine temperatures of -3. Monday: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level to 1800 metres with alpine temperatures of -1, closer to 0 in the south of the region. Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered wet flurries and up to 5 cm accumulating. Rain below about 1800 metres. Precipitation intensifying overnight. Moderate to strong south winds. Freezing level to 2200 metres with alpine temperatures around 0, slightly warmer in the south of the region.

Reports from Friday showed several wind slabs failing naturally and with remote triggers from Size 1-2.5 in the north of the region. The largest of these initiated on a southeast aspect at 2100 metres, is suspected to have failed on the late February weak layer, and featured a crown fracture depth of 80-120 cm.Reports from Thursday included one explosives triggered Size 3 avalanche in the Duffey Lake area that began as a shallow surface slab before stepping down to one of our February weak layers. A social media report from the same area details a remotely triggered Size 2 storm slab on a southeast aspect near treeline. Looking forward, recent persistent slab avalanche activity supports ongoing concern for large avalanches releasing on our February weak layers, especially in the north of the region. While natural avalanches on these layers may become unlikely, evidence suggests a lingering possibility for a rider to directly trigger a persistent slab or for a smaller avalanche to 'step down'.

A week of stormy weather has brought 70-105 cm of recent snow to the north of the region and well over a metre to the south. Recent south to southwest winds have redistributed much of this snow in wind-exposed terrain, forming touchy wind and storm slabs. The above mentioned storm snow overlies the mid-February and late-February interfaces, which may be close together in the snowpack. The late-February interface consists of wind affected surfaces in exposed terrain, sun crust on steep solar aspects, and facets and surface hoar in sheltered areas. The mid-February interface consists of a thick rain crust which extends to at least treeline, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, and in many places, a layer of facets overlying the crust. Recent snowpack observations and avalanche activity suggest the late-February layer is most reactive in the north of region while the mid-February layer may remain reactive in the south of the region. Below these layers, the mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.