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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 18th, 2019–Nov 19th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

The Winter Permit System will be in affect Wednesday, November 20th. Permits are required to enter Winter Restricted Areas.

Weather Forecast

Today: Unsettled weather between systems. Mainly cloudy with flurries. Treeline temp: High -3 °C. Ridge wind light SW.  Fzl 1600m Tonight: A system passing just south of us will bring flurries (5-10cm). Treeline temp: low -5 °C. Light ridge wind.  Fzl 1200m. A ridge of high pressure Tues will bring clearing skies, cooler temps, and northerly winds.

Snowpack Summary

35-50cm of new storm snow overlies an early season snowpack, complete with a series of melt-freeze crusts throughout the height of snow. Moderate SW winds and mild temps have created a storm slab in alpine and tree-line lee features. These slabs, which sit atop a melt-freeze crust, are reported to be easily triggered by human loading.

Avalanche Summary

The weekend storm brought a decent, early-season avalanche cycle. Human-triggered avalanches to size 2 were reported from the Asulkan Hut area. Numerous natural avalanches to size 2.5-3 were observed from Tupper, Macdonald, and Cheops.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.