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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2019–Jan 12th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Sheltered areas will have some decent skiing but thats about it.  We still have low confidence in our current snowpack and we are playing it conservative out there.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Winds are forecast to calm down but unfortunately the damage is done...  Temps will remain above average around -4C and no new snow is in the forecast till maybe after the weekend....  The ice climbing is great right now though!!!

Avalanche Summary

One sz 2 on a SW aspects above rummel lake that ran from steep alpine terrain down well below treeline. 

Snowpack Summary

Wind and basal facets are the themes this year so far... Another windy day again today has added to the wind slabs in the alpine and open areas at tree line. Northerly and Easterly aspects and lee feature are most likely to have more snow and soft slabs because of the winds.  This is a reminder that the bottom half of the snowpack is weak and consists mostly of facets. Good skiing can be found on moderate angles and the forecasters are staying off of the steeper lines and away from large slopes. Any avalanche that occurs has the potential to step down to the basal facets creating an even larger avalanche.  Skiing is OK but not great.  Still feels like a low snowpack year...

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.