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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2012–Feb 20th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Monday and Tuesday: flurries both days bringing minimal accumulation of new snow. Light to moderate NW winds increasing to strong NW on Tuesday. Freezing level around 800 m. Tuesday night into Wednesday: a slightly stronger band of moisture arrives bringing around 10 cm new snow, freezing levels rising to 1800 m and strong westerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported from this region.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of recent snow now sits on a variable weak layer comprising surface hoar (most prevalent in the west of the region), sugary facets on shady northerly aspects and sun crusts on solar aspects. These interfaces need watching as they receive more snow load and/or wind slab builds on top of these surfaces (see the forecaster blog for a good discussion on this). Below that, approximately 20 cm of near-surface facets can be found on shady slopes. While the mid-pack is quite strong in most locations, lingering concern remains for basal facets, particularly in shallower snowpack areas with steep, rocky start zones.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.