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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 24th, 2014–Nov 25th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

South Rockies.

Avalanche Danger is expected to increase as weather systems roll across the province and add to the developing storm slab. If new snow amounts are greater than 15 cm, consider Tuesday's danger ratings to be too low.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A series of frontal systems will bring continued precipitation for the forecast period. A southerly feed will drive freezing levels up to around 2000m by Wednesday.Tuesday: 5-10cm of snow / Moderate west winds / Freezing levels between 1000 and 1500mWednesday: 10-15cm of snow at higher elevations / Strong west winds / Freezing level at about 2000mThursday: 10-15cm of snow at higher elevations / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at about 1800m

Avalanche Summary

There have been no reports of avalanche activity in the region; however, I suspect that new storm slabs are forming in the alpine and may be touchy to human triggering.

Snowpack Summary

As we begin our forecasting season we are working with very limited field data. If you have been out in the mountains, please send us a note with your observations to [email protected] limited field data that we have received suggests that there is not enough snow at and below treeline for avalanche activity. If this is not the case in your area, then you may want to consider the avalanche danger to be similar to the Alpine. The developing storm slab in the alpine may be sitting on a weak layer of facetted snow, surface hoar, and/or a wind or sun crust that developed earlier in the month. This storm slab has been touchy to human triggers, and is expected to continue to develop with the forecast snow and wind.We are interested in snow depths at different elevations, spatial extent of the crust/facet weak layer, and new snow/ storm snow amounts. Avalanche danger may rise quickly if new snow amounts are greater than 20 cm per day

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.