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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2015–Feb 20th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

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Confidence

Good - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

Conditions will remain dry and mild through the forecast period with diurnal fluctuations in the freezing level (the spring-like pattern where the temperature can drop by up to 10 degrees overnight only to rise again through the day). A cold front moving in from the northeast will being light perception and through Friday and Saturday before clear skies return on Sunday. Winds will be predominately light from the north to northeast through the period. Freezing levels are forecast to reach a high of 1600m on Friday, and 1200m on Saturday and Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported recently

Snowpack Summary

A thick, solid crust can be found at the surface on all but highest alpine slopes . It sounds like the best riding is in the North of the region where a thin dusting covers old wind pressed snow in alpine. The recent winds have been light to moderate from the southwest and I suspect that you can find isolated thin windslabs in lee features. Below 2200 to 2400m the crust is effectively capping the snowpack and protecting a couple of buried persistent week layers. The mid-January surface hoar is around 60 to 80cm down. The mid-December crust is becoming harder to find but where it does exist (mainly at treeline elevations) it is over a meter down. At upper elevations where these layers are note protected by the crust it could still be possible to trigger an avalanche form a thin or rocky spot.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.