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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2016–Mar 2nd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Give the snowpack a chance to settle and adjust to the new load. Pick conservative terrain especially if the wind is blowing

Confidence

High - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: heavy snow continues overnight with another 10 expected by the end of the day, mainly light southwesterly winds, 1800m freezing level. THURSDAY: 10cm of new snow, moderate southwest winds, 1800m freezing level. FRIDAY: heavy snow, strong southerly winds, 1800m freezing level.

Avalanche Summary

Isolated artificially and naturally triggered storm slab, wind slab and cornice avalanches continue to be reported. Cornices are large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person. Natural avalanche activity is expected to peak overnight on Tuesday, although human triggering will remain likely through the forecast period.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of new snow and strong winds have formed widespread fresh storm slabs. The upper snowpack sits above a crust that was reported on all aspects and elevations before the weekend. Isolated pockets of surface hoar were also reported in high north facing terrain that stayed cool prior to the storm. The mid-pack is generally well settled. A layer of surface hoar buried in early January can now be found down 1-2 m. In most places it is thought to be capped by a thick widespread crust. However, in the north of the region it has produced recent isolated hard sudden planar failures in snow pit test from shallow areas.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.