Watch for a wide range of conditions (and avalanche problems) as winter and spring weather patterns collide.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
Between 5-20mm of precipitation will fall between Sunday night and Monday. Expect a mix of sun and cloud on Tuesday and generally clear skies on Wednesday. Ridgetop winds will be strong from the southwest on Sunday night and Monday, and then remain light for the rest of the forecast period. Freezing levels are expected to sit at 2300m on Sunday night and then drop to 1400m for Monday and Tuesday. Freezing levels will then shoot back up to 2900m with Wednesday's clear weather.
Avalanche Summary
Recent observations have been extremely limited; however, in the neighboring Sea to Sky region wet slab, loose wet and cornice avalanches to size 3 were triggered naturally by warming and solar radiation. On Monday there will be a shift to more wintery avalanche problems. New snow and wind are forecast to spark a round of fresh storm slab activity in high elevation lee terrain.
Snowpack Summary
By Monday morning light to locally moderate amounts of snow are expected to have fallen. Due to the temperature trend in the storm (warm to cold), my feeling is the new snow will develop a reasonable bond to older surfaces which should include a mix of hard crusts on high elevation solar aspects, settled dry snow in high north-facing terrain, and moist snow everywhere else. Strong to extreme southwest winds should accompany the storm, so I would expect relatively short-lived yet potentially deep weaknesses to exist with the new snow, especially in high elevation lee terrain. The storm will also encourage ongoing cornice development and newly formed cornice tabs are expected to be sensitive to triggering. Below the new snow, the snowpack is generally strong and well-settled. The exception may be in the Duffey area where professionals are tracking a layer of facets down over 1m which likely resulted in a couple deep persistent avalanches which were reported during last week's warm-up. With forecast cooling on Monday and Tuesday, this layer should become dormant (until the next warm spell).
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.