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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 24th, 2012–Mar 25th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Expect a dry day, with clouds building late in the day. Winds remain light southerly with freezing levels reaching 1800m. Monday: Mixed skies should give way to mostly cloudy conditions and a chance of flurries later in the day and freezing levels reaching 1500m. Winds continue southerly and remain light. Tuesday: Continued light precipitation overnight as freezing levels climb to 1400m. Winds increase to strong southerlies by the afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

Isolated loose wet avalanches from daytime heating have been reported. There was also 2 recent large natural avalanches reported; a size 3.0 from a northeast aspect in the Chilcotin area and a size 4.0 from a south aspect in the west side of the Duffey Lakes area.

Snowpack Summary

The warm temperatures have brought us into a spring melt freeze cycle with the surface snow softening with daytime warming on solar aspects then crusting overnight as temperatures dip back below freezing. Large cornices loom in at ridgecrest. Recent storm snow varies significantly throughout the region with southeast areas (Coquihalla) receiving up to 60cm of new snow, while places like the Duffey Lake have seen considerably less. Expect wind slabs to be deep in heavy snowfall areas and thin in other areas. Crusts down around 60cm can be found on solar aspects in the Duffey Lake, Chilcotin, and down closer to 100cm in the Coquihalla. Deep, persistent weak layers buried in early February are variable in distribution across the region but remain a key concern. In recent snowpack analysis this layer remains well preserved as surface hoar on north aspects and is a suncrust, facet combo on solar aspects. On both aspects we have reports of clean sudden planar shears at an average depth of 150cm. Although the likelihood of triggering this layer has decreased, the potential for surprisingly large avalanches remains.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.