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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2015–Feb 15th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

During recent storms freezing levels have varied significantly throughout the region. Conditions are highly variable. Pay close attention to conditions that change with elevation, aspect and geographic location.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will develop and bring mainly clear skies for the forecast period. Sunday: Light snowfall in the morning and then clearing throughout the day / Moderate to strong northwest winds / Freezing level at about 1200m    Monday: Mix of sun and cloud / Moderate northwest winds / Freezing level at 1200m    Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at 2500m

Avalanche Summary

Wet loose and wet slab avalanche activity to size 2.5 was observed in the south of the region in the last few days. If warm temperatures persist, there is ongoing potential for this type of activity to continue.

Snowpack Summary

In the Terrace area, warming and subsequent refreezing has created a hard melt-freeze crust which extends up to about 1800m. This melt-freeze crust is adding considerable strength to the snowpack, although warming throughout the day will weaken this crust allowing for surface avalanches to fail more easily. About 20 or 30cm below the surface you may find weak surface hoar which was buried on February 10th. It is unclear if recent warming has destroyed this potentially weak layer. I'd dig down and test for this layer, especially at upper elevations where colder temperatures may have allowed for this weakness to persist. In general, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well-settled. Further north in the region, the freezing level is reported to have hovered around 1300m during recent storms. In these areas, wind and storm slabs are a concern and deeper persistent weaknesses are more likely to exist.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.