Avalanche Forecast

After nearly two weeks of quite avalanche concerns, a series of storms will begin to impact the West-South region on Thursday night. The southerly flow associated with these systems should favor the volcanoes, with lesser amounts of precipitation near Crystal, Chinook Pass, and White Pass. As a result, the avalanche danger will be focused on the volcano locations. To make matters more complicated, the weather models diverge significantly regarding the strength and timing of each precipitation event. You’ll need to monitor conditions and recognize when the weather you’re experiencing doesn’t match the forecast. If your observations don’t line-up with what you expected, dial back your terrain use to lower angle and lower consequence slopes.

We expect areas near Paradise to accumulate nearly an inch of water by Friday afternoon with slightly lowering freezing levels. Winds during the same time period should begin to increase in all locations and could redistribute any new snow. Consequently, the avalanche danger should peak later in the day. 

At lower elevations, more rain will continue to fuel the melting and shrinking of the snowpack. You should expect the snow coverage to look different than it did over the last few weeks. You may find open creeks, holes near rocks, snow falling from cliffs, and even bare ground. This brings with it a unique set of non-avalanche related hazards to backcountry travelers. Give these springtime issues a wide berth especially during periods of rain and warm temperatures.

We expect similar springtime hazards such as these glide cracks, exposed rocks, and openings seen on Mt Herman at 4300 ft.  04/03/19 Photo: Andrew Kiefer

April 3rd, 2019

Spring snowmelt

The snowpack in much of the Cascades has changed dramatically in the past two weeks. The weather has shifted solidly to spring-like patterns. The spring warm-up started in mid-March with a prolonged period of relatively clear skies and warm temperatures. Moving into April, we’re seeing periods of unsettled spring weather bringing rain to many low and mid-elevation slopes and snow to upper elevations.

Very bare southeast aspects of Rock Mtn/Nason Ridge. April 2nd. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Since the peak height of snow in mid to late February, mountain weather stations in the 4,000-5,000ft range show an average of 27% decrease in height of snow. Looking at weather stations in nearly every zone, the percentage decrease ranged from 22-29%. This year's spring snowmelt is much earlier than normal. Traveling in the mountains the loss of snow coverage is most noticeable on southerly, sun-exposed slopes and below 4,000ft. On northerly aspects and slopes above 5,500ft, the snowpack has seen less dramatic changes and has even maintained some dry layers.

NWAC climatological snow depth data from April 1st. You can view it on our website here.

Spring avalanche considerations

As you head into the mountains there are a few questions to ask yourself common to spring avalanche conditions:

1. Is there any recent snow accumulation that could cause avalanches? If so, what kind of avalanches could you trigger? And where?

2. What are the high and low temperatures of the past 24 hours as well as the forecasted temperatures during the time you’ll be in the mountains? Could these create weak, wet snow surfaces?

3. How is the cloud cover contributing to the melting or freezing of surface snow? Did clear skies allow for a sufficient overnight freeze? Will the sun be strong enough to weaken surface layers?

Glide avalanches and holes opening up in rocky terrain near Mount Herman. Photo: Andrew Kiefer

Other considerations

In addition to daily avalanche hazard, the early snowmelt is creating some other travel considerations. Some roads and lower elevation slopes may not have enough continuous snow coverage for travel on snow machines. Holes melted around rocks, trees, and creeks could create a fall hazard. When nighttime temperatures and cloud cover allow for surface freezes, bring appropriate equipment to mitigate slip and fall hazard on steep slopes.

We are approaching the end of our daily avalanche forecasting season. The mountain weather forecast will continue into the spring, and the weather station data is available year round. Keep checking the forecast for conditions updates on the end of season information.