Avalanche Forecast

Observers have reported a widespread and prolonged cycle of avalanches involving a variety of aspects and elevations. Common characteristics of these avalanches are very widely propagating crowns about 3 feet deep. Local ski patrols, highway workers, and backcountry travelers all reported extensive avalanching on the night of the 11th, into the 12th, with triggered slides and a few naturals continuing into the 13th. While some avalanches ran in storm layers in the upper snowpack, many appear to be running an old weak faceted layer over 3 feet below the surface. Visibility and dangerous conditions have limited our ability to gather more detailed information.

Mission Ridge has received over 40 inches of snow since February 8th. Low elevation terrain, including slopes close to towns, are now locations of concern for avalanches. On Tuesday, forecaster Matt Primomo reported natural avalanches and found a very weak and avalanche prone snowpack on the Rooster Comb, on the outskirts of South Wenatchee. Expect similar conditions near the towns of Peshastin and Leavenworth. In addition to avalanches, all the deep snow is building concern for Snow Immersion Suffocation, or tree well hazards higher in the mountains. Travel with partners and keep them in sight.

A natural avalanche in the Icicle Canyon. Grindstone Mtn, SE, 6,600ft. Photo: Matt Primomo

Since February 8th, the mountains (and low elevation cities) of the Pacific Northwest have experienced cold and very stormy weather. Significant snowfall has added up in all forecast zones. Records from Snoqualmie Pass DOT avalanche workers back to 1973 show that February 11-12th set a record for the most snow recorded in a 24hr period at that location. The table below shows storm totals starting February 8th through the morning of the 13th 

5 day totals ending morning of Feb 13th

Water Equivalent (inches)

24hr storm totals

(inches)

Difference in Height of Snow (inches)

Hurricane Ridge

1.97

N/A

+ 30

Mt. Baker

1.94

44

Washington Pass

1.66

NA

+ 16

Stevens Pass

2.71

49

Snoqualmie Pass

3.91

80

Mission Ridge

1.86

38

Crystal

2.91

59

Paradise

4.55

N/A

White Pass

N/A

57 (4400ft)

+ 26 (5800ft)

Mt. Hood Meadows

4.70

43

Heavy precipitation brought many mountain regions to their tipping point. Avalanches ran readily with a peak of snowfall intensity. For Stevens Pass, Snoqualmie Pass, East Central, West South, Mt Hood, and possibly West Central zones we have good confirmation that this cycle happened from the night of February 11th through the 12th. In other zones, snow totals haven’t been significant enough for widespread avalanche cycles, or we lack data (like in the East South zone).

The high rates of precipitation drove avalanches in the storm snow. Notably, a persistent weak layer of facets and surface hoar was buried in most zones on February 8th. Storms produced a widespread and prolonged cycle of avalanches on the February 8th interface, involving a variety of aspects and elevations. Local ski patrols, highway workers, and backcountry travelers reported extensive avalanching with widely propagating crowns and very sensitive conditions. With less stormy weather, observers have just begun to get a sense of the extent of the avalanche activity. Triggering persistent slab avalanches will be a concern for backcountry travelers in zones where the February 8th weak layer is active for at least the near, if not distant future. Stay tuned for more updates.