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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 15th, 2019–Apr 16th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia.

Be cautious of reactive deposits of new snow around ridges and in lee terrain. If the sun shines or the snowpack turns moist, the likelihood of triggering loose wet avalanches will increase, especially in areas with fresh snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear / southwest wind, 10-15 km/h / alpine low -5 C / freezing level valley bottomTUESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks and isolated flurries, trace accumulation / southwest wind, 25-35 km/h / alpine high 0 C / freezing level 1800 mWEDNESDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries, up to 5 cm accumulation / southwest wind, 25-35 gusting to 50 km/h / alpine high 0 C / freezing level 2100 mTHURSDAY: Cloudy with scattered wet flurries, up to 10 cm / southwest wind, 25-45 km/h / alpine high +2 C / freezing level 2300 m

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, two size 2 storm slab avalanches were triggered by skiers on east aspects at 2200m. A group of skiers remote triggered a size 2 storm slab avalanche from 50 m away, failing on a southeast slope at 2250 m. One natural size 2 storm slab avalanche was observed on a steep, north aspect between 2100-2550 m. Late Saturday, storm snow was sloughing in steep terrain with skier traffic and gaining cohesion.

Snowpack Summary

15-40 cm fell around the region since Saturday, in the alpine new snow has been redistributed by wind in exposed areas. The new snow accumulated over a melt freeze crust on most aspects. On north-facing terrain above 2000 m, the new snow accumulated over another 20-30 cm wind-affected snow from early April, in isolated areas surface hoar may now be buried 30-65 cm. Older wind slabs sitting on surface hoar might still be sensitive to human triggers. Below treeline snow is disappearing rapidly. Sun and rising freezing levels are warming the snowpack and settling new snow, the likelihood of loose wet avalanches will increase as heat penetrates into the snowpack.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.