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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2021–Feb 15th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies.

Human triggered avalanches remain possible, but time and cold temperatures have reduced their sensitivity to triggering. Watch for wind slabs in funny places in the alpine as east/southeast winds continue to blow. Read about managing these conditions in this forecaster blog.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to extremely variable snowpack conditions reported through the region. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

While cold temperature are with us through the weekend it looks like things will warm up a bit next week.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overnight low temperature around -28 C, strong southeast wind, no snow expected.

SUNDAY: Broken cloud cover, daytime high temperature around -12 C, moderate west/southwest wind, a few cm of snow possible.

MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, daytime high temperature around -5 C, light west/southwest wind, trace of snow possible.

TUESDAY: Broken cloud cover, daytime high temperature around -5 C, moderate to strong west/northwest wind, trace of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

This older avalanche was spotted around Tete Juane, it likely ran before the cold snap. Other than that there have been no recent avalanche observations.

During the first week of February there were small human triggered avalanches around Pine Pass and other observations that suggest the late January surface hoar isn't going to go away anytime soon. There are some great visuals of that activity in this MIN. 

Snowpack Summary

There is about 25-40 cm of snow resting on buried surface hoar which is most prevalent above 1600 m. It likely reaches into the alpine too, we're just not sure how high it extends. It may be present down in the trees in some places as well. This surface hoar seems to be deepest, and most sensitive to triggering around the McBride area. 

Below 1600 m this snow sits on a crust. 

There are presently no deeper concerns in the snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Carefully evaluate big/extreme terrain features before committing to them, it's not full "go" time yet.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.