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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2020–Jan 3rd, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

The weekend will be a good time to avoid avalanche terrain: A warm storm is approaching and forecast snowfall amounts range anywhere from 40-80cm with 120km/h winds beginning on Saturday.

Weather Forecast

A warm storm is incoming! Models are calling for anywhere between 40-60cm of snow beginning on Friday and ending Sunday night, with nuclear southwest winds, up to 120km/h at ridgetop on Saturday. Freezing levels will likely sit around 1500m, but some models have them as high as 1850m.

Snowpack Summary

A bit of fluff sits on a highly variable snowpack, and most areas have seen significant wind. The December 9 crust is down 30-80cm and is more prominent immediately around Cameron Lake, still giving hard sudden results in test profiles. A sandwich of crusts and facets form the base of the snowpack. Eastern areas hold a structurally weaker snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches observed

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.