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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2021–Jan 6th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Lots of recent fresh snow, strong southwest winds, and a buried weak layer means that human triggered avalanches remain likely for now. Choose conservative terrain.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, 5-10 cm / strong southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -8 

WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, 5-10 cm / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -6 / freezing level 1400 m

THURSDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light southeast wind / alpine high temperature near -7 

FRIDAY - Mainly sunny / light southeast wind / alpine high temperature near -3, slight temperature inversion

Avalanche Summary

Fresh snow and wind may continue to overload a weak layer of surface hoar that has been observed in the areas surrounding Valemount. Human triggered avalanches are likely.

Field observations in this region are limited. If you get out, please consider submitting your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

20-50 cm of recent fresh snow now reportedly sits on a weak layer of surface hoar in the areas near Valemount.

A persistent weak layer is now down about 50 to 100 cm. The distribution of this layer is variable. In some areas, it's surface hoar and/or a crust. In other areas, this layer may be difficult to find, if it exists at all. Recent human triggered avalanches have been reported on this layer and have been most numerous in the areas surrounding Valemount.

There is a prominent crust near the base of the snowpack. This crust likely has weak facets above and/or below it. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer, but would be most likely to trigger in steep, shallow, rocky terrain, with a thin to thick snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.