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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 22nd, 2025–Feb 23rd, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Bring an assessment mindset when you head up to check on the aftermath of the storm. Surface snow may still be saturated enough for wet avalanches. Double your caution if you find dry snow.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, several small (up to size 1) natural and human triggered wind slab avalanches were reported in the recent storm snow.

Natural avalanche activity should peak on Saturday. Sunday will be a day to reassess what problems may still be in play.

Snowpack Summary

Mixed precipitation, mainly rain, will continue making a mix of saturated (below treeline), wet new snow (treeline), and deep, heavy, but likely rain affected (alpine) surface conditions Saturday night.

As temperatures cool, anywhere new snow remains dry will likely hold reactive surface instabilities like wind slabs. Crust formation should soon neutralize wet loose problems and cap storm instabilities at lower elevations.

A sandwich of surface hoar and faceted snow overlying the late January crust 40 cm deep (and counting) has produced concerning snowpack test results though the week. High elevation rain is putting it to the test Saturday. Will it survive?

The lower snowpack is well settled.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

A few cm of wet snow accumulating after heavy rain to the alpine. 50 to 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to 1300 m.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with wet flurries and rain beginning in the afternoon, minimal accumulation. 30 to 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1300 m - 1600 m.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with scattered wet flurries, up to about 5 cm accumulation. 40 to 70 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1300 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with scattered wet flurries continuing from overnight, 10 - 20 cm total accumulation, mainly in the alpine. 40 - 60 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level reaching 1400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make observations and continually assess conditions as you travel.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, aspect, and exposure to wind.
  • Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.